Putin, Wagner, and Preparing for a New Regime

Renowned social theorist Max Weber famously defined the state as a ‘human community that (successfully) claims the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force within a given territory.’ In other words, the state is the only authority that can use force and get away with it. As the world watched the Wagner Group and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin reach the outskirts of Moscow, there is one takeaway from the crisis that has been remarked upon infrequently relative to its importance. While the opinion pieces on whether this is the end for Putin and what the armed mutiny means for the war in Ukraine are numerous, one key outcome is that the nature of force in Russia has changed stunningly beyond recognition.

Based on Weber’s definition, we can, for the first time since Putin took office if not longer, legitimately ask whether Russia can any longer be described as a ‘state’. For the truth is that Putin can no longer claim to have a monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force. The Wagner Group was able to march straight towards Moscow with very little resistance and now Prigozhin has been exiled to Belarus, but the damage has been done. There seems to be little punishment for those involved in the attempted coup.

While three generals who had advanced knowledge have potentially been imprisoned or killed (the information is limited so it is really very hard to work out), everyone else seems to have got away basically scot-free. This represents a real breakdown of a functioning state. Put it this way, would an armed mutiny where a militia, having announced it wanted to get rid of Ben Wallace and the defence staff, marched from John O’Groats to Coventry (a similar distance from Ukraine to Moscow) with 50,000 troops and took hold of various major cities (like Edinburgh, Manchester and Birmingham) along the way, while the army did nothing to stop them, get away without punishment if they suddenly decided to just go home?

Until this loss of control in the use of force is resolved, the alternative noun applicable to Russia’s plight would generally be that of civil war, with multiple groups jostling for the ascendency and wishing to lay claim to that monopoly on the legitimate use of force which comes with being ‘the state’.

This all has profound implications for world order as a declining global power loses its ability to control itself. The people who will ultimately suffer and must be kept in mind are the people of Russia - not Putin and his friends, no matter the pace of falling from grace. Both Prigozhin and Putin need to be careful of generous portions of tea and large windows, with huge numbers wanting their heads.

This also provides major problems for Western planners. Many analysts had complacently assumed until the events of the last fortnight that when Putin eventually fell, there would be a clear successor to run Russia. As the idea of a Russian cohesive state appears to have retreated and different groups fight over territory, the West needs to adapt its planning for what happens after Putin’s demise. He is now a lame duck, with the possibility of his body double being assassinated as the double makes random public trips and shakes hands with members of the public while Putin tries to rebuild a sense of popularity he once enjoyed. Moving forward, any number of things could happen as the current leadership faces being replaced, at least in the medium term. The Wagner Group could well take territory in Southwest Russia, including the area surrounding Rostov-on-Don, while a new Kremlin leader controls most remaining parts of the country, trying to keep dissent to a minimum.

There is one further possibility for Western reaction to the armed mutiny: perversely, it strengthens Putin’s standing in the West. If your options are nuclear weapons under the control of a militia leader or under Putin’s direction, many would argue that you would rather Putin were in charge. Prigozhin or Putin is truly Hobson’s Choice but it may be the one facing the West in the near future. We should prepare vigilantly.

Bertie Hawkins (Lady Margaret Hall) is going into his third year reading PPE.

Image Credit: Flowcomm, Flickr, Creative Commons License