A Retrospective on the 2024 US Election

The 2024 US Presidential Election is something I sunk an awful lot of time and thought into, despite the fact that I had literally zero impact on the result. Worse still, I failed to accurately predict the outcome, believing that Harris would win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada, and therefore the White House as well. The thought of Trump winning the popular vote never seriously crossed my mind. For these reasons, I thought it was worthwhile to look back on the election result, focusing particularly on the swing states, now that Trump has returned as President No.47.

Firstly, let’s talk about the ‘rust belt’ three: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Had Harris won those three states (along with the states she actually won), she would have won the Presidency with a nail-biting 270 electoral college votes. Of the (generally accepted upon) seven swing states, the three rust belt states were the closest, with Harris not a million miles off winning any of them. Wisconsin was the absolute closest, with Trump winning by a mere 0.86 percentage points. This is a bigger margin than what he won it by in 2016, and a bigger margin than what Biden won it by in 2020, but still an incredibly tight result. No US Presidential candidate in the 21st Century has won Wisconsin by more than a percentage point, with the exception of Obama. Wisconsin as a state is not that big, so a 0.87 percentage point victory translates into fewer than 30,000 votes, which is not much more than the total number of students who attend Oxford University. To really hammer home how tight Wisconsin was, the Democrats were able to hold it on the Senate level, seemingly because a large enough number of Trump voters did not vote down-ballot. Despite all this talk of Wisconsin being tight, it is worth noting that Trump’s coalition in the state has consistently increased in size over time. In 2016 he won 1.4 million votes, in 2020 he won 1.6 million votes and in 2024 he won just under 1.7 million votes.

Michigan was the next closest swing state, with Trump winning by 1.42 percentage points, significantly better than his narrow 2016 victory there (0.23 percentage points). Michigan has one of the largest Muslim communities in the US, with an estimated 2.4% of the state following the religion. While this is disputed, it is possible that disillusioned Muslim voters helped cost Harris the state, frustrated with the Biden administration’s response to the War in Gaza. According to the Guardian, Harris received at least 22,000 fewer votes than Biden did in 2020 in Michigan’s most heavily Arab-American and Muslim cities, with most choosing to not vote or vote third party rather than to vote for Trump. Nonetheless, those 22,000 votes would not have been enough to swing the race, so it is likely that Harris would have lost Michigan even if the War in Gaza had not broken out. Similarly to Wisconsin, the Democratic Senate Candidate was able to pull through in spite of Harris’ loss on the Presidential level. 

Somewhat to my surprise, Trump’s biggest victory in the rust belt was in Pennsylvania, which he won by 1.71 percentage points. Pennsylvania was long seen by pundits as the most crucial of the big seven swing states with its 19 electoral college votes. This makes it the joint fifth largest electoral college prize, tied with Illinois, and behind California, Texas, Florida and New York. Perhaps Trump winning in Pennsylvania should have been more obvious given that polling in the state leaned in Trump’s favour more than it did in Michigan and Wisconsin. Biden only narrowly won it in 2020, and that was in a bad year for Trump (with the response to COVID and so on). Biden also had a unique point of strength in the state. Though he represented Delaware, he was often referred to as ‘Pennsylvania's third Senator’ and was born in Scranton in the north east of the state. Unlike in Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump was just about able to carry the Republican candidate for Senator over the line in Pennsylvania, which was perhaps the only surprising Senate result of the night.

Just before the Presidential debate between Trump and Harris, I decided to place a bet of Harris winning Georgia. I was wrong, obviously, but I don’t think that my bet was that ridiculous. Trump won Georgia by 2.2 percentage points, which wasn’t a huge margin given the state’s historic record. In 2016 Georgia voted roughly 7 percentage points to the right of the country and in 2020 it voted a little under 5 points to the right of the country. In 2024, Georgia only voted 0.7 percentage points to the right of the country. Had the national environment been better for Harris, I probably would have won my bet - the state appears to be continuing its general leftward trend. Several counties in north west Georgia such as Paulding County were some of the only counties in the country to see a meaningful shift left in 2024. One of the main reasons why Georgia was so resilient for Harris was because, despite all the hoopla, African Americans barely shifted right in 2024. Four years is a long time in politics, but if I had to guess now, I recon Georgia will be won by the Democratic candidate in 2028.

The remaining three ‘swing states’ weren’t actually that close in the end. North Carolina was always going to be a challenge given that Trump won it by over a percentage point in 2020. In 2024, Trump won the state fairly comfortably (by 3.21 percentage points), able to resist the down ballot problem of having an absolutely terrible Republican candidate for governor in the state. Meanwhile, in the south west of the country, Arizona and Nevada saw huge swings in Trump’s favour. Arizona went from being Biden +0.3 in 2020 to Trump +5.53 in 2024 and Nevada went from being Biden +2.39 in 2020 to Trump +3.1 in 2024. Trump’s significant gains among Hispanics, and concerns about the border (particularly in Arizona, which is a border state), likely contributed to these heavy swings in Trump’s favour. If demographics really are in the Republican Party’s favour in those two states, they may prove to be out of reach for the Democrats in 2028, even if the Democrats were able to win the Senate seats in both states in 2024.

Throughout this article, I have largely been discussing the swing states. However, it is important to consider the significant gains Trump made in supposed ‘safe blue’ states. New Jersey in particular saw a massive swing from Biden’s 2020 victory, going from being Biden +15.94 in 2020 to Harris +5.91. New York also significantly narrowed, partly due to Trump doing better in urban areas. As well as making gains in blue states, Trump also shored up many of his weaker red states. Texas ended its trend of shifting left, with Trump improving in the state by over 8 percentage points. Florida went from being Trump +3.36 in 2020 to Trump +13.1 in 2024. Not a single state shifted to the left in 2024.

So, what can we conclude from all this? The rust belt states remain incredibly tight and competitive, and will most likely be the centre of focus next Presidential election as well. All three of them are relatively inelastic in how much they swing by, particularly Wisconsin. Georgia, despite voting for Trump, will likely continue to be a state more favourable to the Democrats in future. North Carolina remains a prize just out of reach for the Democrats and, particularly due to shifts in Hispanic voting patterns, Arizona and Nevada may lose their swing state statuses in future and become lean red states. All of this said, given how much politics changes every day, and given my track record in predicting US politics, who knows how much of this article will hold up in four years time…

William Gough (The Publications Editor) is a second year undergraduate reading PPE at St Hilda’s College.