Die Bundestagswahl 2025, Eine kurze Zusammenfassung

The German elections are nigh, and a lot is at stake for one of Europe’s largest economies. After the fall of Scholz’s centre-left coalition late last year, this coming election seems to be divisive and game-changing for the German state. As the title suggests, this article wishes to break down the state of play in the lead up to the close of polls later today and give you the low-down on how German elections work.

Context:

The collapse of Scholz’s government in December 2024 began the campaign trail. The no-confidence placed in him by the Bundestag was not unexpected. A collapse in the coalition between the SDP (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands- led by Chancellor Scholz), The FDP (Freie Demokraten- led by Christian Lindner) and Die Grün (The Greens) happened in November, with the sacking of the finance minister, Christian Linder. Scholz’s government would have appeared to be a doomed fallacy. This came into fruition in December when 394 MPs voted against him in the motion. The Elections were then scheduled for the 23rd of May. With Germany long becoming the ‘Sick man of Europe’, rising energy prices and immigration have been at the forefront of this election cycle, with parties promising economic growth, an end to migration and an end to rising debt within Germany. What makes this election different, however, are the players involved and how deceive the particular margins will be. Yes, the elections will most likely end in a coalition, but it is behind the scenes we must look at to consider the state of play this coming Sunday. Firstly, however, an ample assessment of the parties involved are needed to grasp the nature of these elections…

Die Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD):

Ideology: Centre-left, Social Democracy, Party of European Socialists

Current Seats: 207/733 (Bundestag) 

Projected Seats: 115 (15.5% of the popular vote)

Ran by Scholz, this party has not been the best in government and are now fearing a complete wipeout this coming election, going from one of the largest in the Bundestag, to the third biggest in the chamber. From the get-go there has been a lack of confidence within Scholz himself and his ability to form a coalition with the CDU. 

The SPD wish to brand this election and themselves as a ‘Zeitenwende’ or a ‘Turning-Point’ in their governmental careers, with a pledge to begin a ‘Germany fund’ raising the minimum wage to £12.50 (or 15 EUR) and to continue support to Ukraine. Much of this, however, has fallen on deaf ears as even members of his own party believe that he should have stepped aside for Boris Pistorius to take over. It is not looking good for the SPD, a tenet of German political life since the 1910s, but given political expediency, there may be a coalition deal on the cards for the SPD. 

Die Grünen:

Ideology: Centre-Left, Green Politics, Social Liberalism, European Green Party

Current Seats: 117/733

Projected Seats: 94

Robert Habeck’s Greens were crucial in the Scholz coalition, with himself serving as vice-chancellor and economic minister. His flagship policy, the phasing out of fossil-fuel, was vastly unpopular, leading to a dive in government ratings. He rejects nuclear power and calls for more access to renewable energy. He has criticised many within the political establishment for their reliance on other parties and the AFD/CDU-reliance. They pledge to maintain support for Ukraine and to encourage greater energy independence. Many Germans, however, find that this is being done a bit too quickly and his policies have too, fallen on deaf ears. Given the comments Habeck has made in regard to the right, it seems unlikely that they will be in government. 

Die Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP):

Ideology: Centre-Right, Liberal, Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe

Current Seats: 90/733

Projected Seats: 0 (4.5% Popular Vote)

The rogue choice in the coalition government, the FDP has been the more free-market orientated party of Germany, and also the cause of the downfall of the last government. They are now at risk of falling behind the 5% threshold for parliament and the circumstances are looking dire. With the lowering of seats in the Bundestag and the loss of voters towards the AFD and CDU, it is very unlikely that this party will make any impact, falling from government so quickly and now becoming what could be a non-entity in German politics. The fallout from the debt-brake has been harsh for the FDP, with very little in the way of momentum and a completely divided party. Lindner’s fall from grace has been truly dramatic. 

Der Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (CDU): 

Ideology: Christian Democracy, Centre-Right, Centrist Democrat International 

Current Seats: 153

Projected Seats: 220

Merkel’s old party, the CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, are the frontrunners of this election. A bitter party rival of Merkel, Merz hopes to create a renewed Germany, with a tax cut and a slash of 50bn EUR in welfare spending. He has also promised greater aid for Ukraine. He wishes to bring the German economy back from stagnation, though has also been seen as controversial for his openness in working with the AFD. He has promised greater leadership from Germany and has backed NATO. The bookies have Merz on to win the election, with a plethora of options to form a coalition with other parties in the chamber. Capitalising on the disaster facing the SPD, it is now Merz’s time to shine. 

Alternativ für Deutschland (AFD):

Ideology: Right-Wing Populism, Euroscepticism, National Conservatism

Current Seats: 77

Projected Seats: 145

Perhaps the most interesting of the bunch, the AFD was established in 2013, after a split with the CDU. Since then, Alice Weidel and Co. have gained a plethora of traction and are set to become the second largest party this election. This has been met with some trepidation as the AFD have been known for their controversial statements regarding migration, and east Germany being known as ‘middle’ Germany - a reference to the lost lands to Poland after World War II. The AFD have been very popular in east Germany and have propelled the notion that it is time for Germany to be back, mirroring Trumpist and Reformist sentiment in the US and UK respectively. Though they have gained very strong traction it seems unlikely that they will be in government as Merz has ruled out a possibility of a coalition. Though the staunch growth in the party has been met with both jubilation and fear from different sides of the political spectrum. The AFD are expected to ‘shake things up’ in Germany and push a more right-wing narrative within the Bundestag, becoming a very powerful opposition. 

Conclusionary remarks:

As a man who frequents Germany quite often, I have taken deep interest in this election, which will undoubtedly determine the status of the nation for years to come. Since the rise of the AFD, there have been greater discourses surrounding the political state of Germany, with coalitions being harnessed to keep them out of power. Polls close at 18:00 CET, with an exit poll announced immediately after. The resulting coalition will most likely be between the CDU and SPD, though there are always other possibilities. 

George Kenrick (The Political Officer) is a second year undergraduate reading History at Christ Church.