The Reign in Spain

As an international student who enjoys political discussion the question “so how’s Spain doing?” was bound to come up, thankfully (for the conversation if not my home country) the situation offers ample space for commentary and discussion. I can tell a tale of rising and falling powers, backstabbing, and shifty players, who defend their fiefdoms using them as power bases to control the machinery of state. This can all sound rather grandiose and evoke imagery of political dramas, where we would see Pablo Iglesias ride in on a dragon and scorch the bourgeoisie. However, this is not the case - a more apt comparison would be a Latin-American “Telenovela”, ironically. Watch them debate on TV and tuning out you could easily mistake their attempts at discussion for:

-       Pedro, how could you possibly go behind my back…? With my own mother!

-       Well, Maria, I needed her votes to pass the budget, but my heart will forever be with you.

With the stage set we can pick up with season one, the story picks up after the death of Francisco Franco, November 20th, 1975. Episode one sees much fanfare as two days later the king is crowned and Spain becomes the latest country to re-introduce monarchic rule. The plot is clear, democracy must be protected. The man to do it: Adolfo Suarez, already part of the machinery of state, his appointment was opposed by the left, but it was a calculated move by the king in order to appease the still powerful conservative elements in power, particularly in the military. Nonetheless, he served as a true democrat. First passing electoral reform, and then winning the first free elections Spain had seen since the Second Republic, proving he was a popular choice with the people. His final great feat was the effort to ratify a constitution, which happened in late 1978. For good measure, he went on to win the first election under the new constitutional system, and then having founded a nation he resigned. However, as if the scriptwriters required more drama – a cliffhanger to end the season. On the day his successor was to be approved by parliament during the vote a rogue lieutenant colonel burst in shouting “nobody move” and discharges his weapon into the ceiling of the chamber.

Still fledgling democracy was fragile in Spain, if it was to be safeguarded action would have to be taken. There was a standoff in the chamber, with the outgoing president Adolfo Suarez and other high-ranking politicians ordering the rebel to stand down, they were eventually subdued and carried out. Meanwhile, the king had a meeting with his staff and various heads of the Armed forces, they all assured him that the coup was not widespread, with the only other notable insurgence in Valencia. Therefore, he addressed the nation reiterating his backing of the constitution and the elected government. This is the final time there has been a serious attempt to threaten Spanish democracy, hence it was now time to look outwards. Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo did take over successfully and finalized joining NATO in late 1981.

The elections of 1982 served as the groundwork for much of what would go on during the next thirty years. Largely there are three groups in Spanish politics. Firstly, the left, which won a huge victory in 1982 with PSOE founding the first ever majority government in the new system, but there was also PSC (Catalonian socialists) who work fairly closely with the main socialist party in Spain, the PCE (communists), PSUC (also Catalonian socialists) who worked less closely with the main party, finally ERC (a third group of Catalonian left-wingers, this time more so); then you have the right, led by a large coalition AP, and the transition parties which are rapidly losing power, as the nation grapples with other issues. UCD struggled to maintain relevancy post-Adolfo Suarez leaving and he in turn never got another party off the ground. Finally, there are the regional parties, CiU in Catalonia and PNV in the Basque country. After rattling off that list, you see what I mean by soap-opera, but for now they play the supporting cast.

PSOE was in power and the writers had little more they wanted done. They wrapped up the loose plotline where Spain was to join the EEC (and later EU) with a nice little bow in January 1986 joining along with its Iberian brother. But then they started to phone it in. PSOE stayed in power until a rebranded right, now under José María Aznar’s PP took control in 1996, and despite certain internal troubles he remained in power for two terms and stepped down, through his successor would eventually be elected president, it would not be in the 2004 general election. The pendulum swung and PSOE’s José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero ran the country for two terms. This included the financial crash and the very beginnings of the Euro-Crisis, though that would mostly be borne by the following government, yet we were refused a good storyline, and the country carried on. Much the same happened in 2011, though this time it was Rajoy’s PP who took charge, yet the country was bored out of their minds. “Drama!” they acclaimed; this was delivered. In the early days the state of the country called for stable leadership, now in what was a comparatively favorable climate all hell would break loose. We were about to embark in a period of constantly shifting priorities, and general uncertainty, with Spain having 4 elections and 5 governments in 4 years. This all starts in the run-up to the election of 2015.

Two new players were about to change the game, one came from the left, appealing a young socialist voter and taking a huge chunk out of PSOE’s voter base; Podemos, and their charismatic hip new leader Pablo Iglesias. Fiery speeches and ponytail-goatee combo made him a media success. In the center (the original UCD) bulwark came Ciudadanos, classical liberals, aiming to split the difference, they offered an alternative to voters tired of the repetition but disenchanted by the far-left politics of Podemos, who had entered an electoral coalition with Izquierda Unida, the successors to the Spanish Communist Party, and appropriately re-branding as Unidos Podemos. All this meant a hung parliament, but more importantly a shift in Spanish political debate. The party leaders became more important, as they all raced for media attention. The results were clear and devastating: PP lost the majority, and PSOE was left with 2% more vote share than Podemos as no one could agree on a government. This meant Spain would have to endure another election around 6 months later. Conveniently placed in the summer, to keep political junkies intrigued between the elections of Brexit and Trump. We were delighted to… much the same result, with two major catches, PP did better (though not enough to govern alone) and PSOE did worse, only slightly but enough to spook them, because crucially Podemos held the same number of seats. Instead of commentary centering on when the bubble would burst it turned to when Podemos would surpass PSOE as the largest left-wing party. After months of negotiation PP would govern, but a sacrifice had to be made, PSOE needed a scapegoat, so head of the party Pedro Sanchez was ousted, had only accomplished to drown PSOE and was disliked by most of those in positions of power. He vanished never to be seen again…

Sike! For this was to be the biggest comeback in Spanish political history. Firstly, he needed to get back into the party and the producers wasted no time, at the very leadership elections his resignation had caused not months before the party-affiliates stood by him and he returned as head with 50.2% of the vote (due to the flower PSOE use as a symbol this is known as the “war of the roses” in Spain). Back in congress he just bid his time, and when a corruption scandal hit, he launched a motion of no confidence and strode into the presidential palace. But how? Well, it turned out that if he got the backing of all the regional parties plus Podemos he would be able to inch past the finish line, and he did, grasping the presidency with both hands… well not quite, as when it came time to pass the yearly budget all his allies turned out to just have been enemies of Rajoy. So gridlocked it was time for another election, and the PP started to ready itself the moment they got kicked out, as everyone knew this government was balanced on a knife’s edge.

Hence a leadership election was called, and not without controversy. The man who would eventually lead the party did not come first in the election, but the system wasn’t first past the post, so when other prominent members lent him their backing, he was elected head. Clearly this caused issues for the party as they crashed cutting their number of deputies in half. However, there was another character was about to be introduced. Santiago Abascal and his party Vox are right-wing, conservative, traditionalists and also oppose any sort of regional movement. They took votes particularly in the southern Andalucía region. All this combined to give PSOE their best chance at power yet, but that meant the they would have to agree with Podemos and the several groups of nationalists again, which they did not. Pablo Iglesias wanted the title of vice president, the nationalists wanted promises from financial to political concessions and the media watched his every move, so mark your calendars again, we will have a November election.

At risk of mixing my metaphors let’s put aside the telenovela argument and look at this as players on a pitch. Vox had been growing in strength, so PP tactically pivoted away and started taking the center ground. This squished Ciudadanos, which had nowhere to go as recent blunder within Unidas Podemos (I wrote that right, they rebranded again to the feminine version of the adjective), and particularly their leader - who as it turns out filled key party roles with family and friends and bought himself a nice house in a part of town that as his party was getting off the ground he described as for the “out of touch elite” - meant PSOE could also focus on the center.

This election was the last one we’ve had: PSOE is still the largest party falling a small amount. PP recuperated somewhat and are now in a stronger position, Vox absolutely exploded doubling their seats, Podemos continues on the downward trajectory it has been in since its original success having half the deputies they did at their peak, and Ciudadanos collapses to a mere 10 deputies, falling behind the small regional parties for the first time in the party’s history, which has led to the leader resigning. The return of PP and the rise of Vox shook the left which though overall having less margin were more willing to compromise. Hence Sanchez and his impressive majority of 2 (split amongst 3 parties and relying on the abstention of 5 others in all major votes) remain. This time Pablo Iglesias is vice-president, though in a move to diminish his importance he is one of 4, something which didn’t go down well. His cabinet decisions didn’t go down well with the regional leadership who are removing their support (sound familiar?).

Whilst all this was going on we must not forget the “B-plot” in Spanish politics, constantly in the background. In 2017 an Illegal independence referendum was called in the Catalonia region, passing with a comfortable 90% approval rate, so it was hailed as a success, nevermind that it was boycotted by all unionist parties. For this and several other administrative crimes, several of the Catalan political leaders were indicted. This being Spain, we wouldn’t just be treated to a fiery trial, because several of the accused fled the country under the cover of darkness and are still living in a self-imposed exile. If you think that would pump the breaks on their political careers you don’t yet understand how Spanish politics work, because Charles Puigdemont is currently one of Spain’s MEPs.

That is the situation up to the present, and without wanting to dive into speculation I think we can say that the reign in Spain, falls to the insane.

Juan Dávila is a First Year reading Engineering Science at St. John’s College